{"id":293289,"date":"2020-06-01T00:21:52","date_gmt":"2020-05-31T14:21:52","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.gomarketingteam.com\/articles\/week-ahead-trumpolitics-central-banks-and-nonfarm-payrolls\/"},"modified":"2021-02-19T12:13:46","modified_gmt":"2021-02-19T01:13:46","slug":"week-ahead-trumpolitics-central-banks-and-nonfarm-payrolls","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.gomarkets.com\/en\/weekly-summaries\/week-ahead-trumpolitics-central-banks-and-nonfarm-payrolls\/","title":{"rendered":"Week Ahead: Trumpolitics, Central Banks and Nonfarm Payrolls"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><strong>By Deepta Bolaky<\/strong><br \/>\n<img style=\"float: left; width: 20px; padding-top: 4px;\" src=\"https:\/\/www.gomarkets.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/08\/twitter.png\" \/>\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/DeeptaGOMarkets\">@DeeptaGOMarkets<\/a><\/p>\n<h4><b>Trumpolitics<\/b><\/h4>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Markets dissected President Trump\u2019s remarks on actions against China on Friday. A key takeaway from those remarks was that the US President did not mention the Phase One trade deal between the US and China and instead focused on China\u2019s handling of coronavirus, the World Health Organisation (WHO) and Hong Kong controversial security law:<\/span><\/p>\n<p><b>Coronavirus pandemic:<\/b><\/p>\n<p><i><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">\u00a0\u201c<\/span><\/i><i><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The world is now suffering as a result of the malfeasance of the Chinese government. China\u2019s cover-up of the Wuhan virus allowed the disease to spread all over the world, instigating a global pandemic that has cost more than 100,000 American lives and over a million lives worldwide.\u201d<\/span><\/i><\/p>\n<p><b>WHO:<\/b><\/p>\n<p><i><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">\u201c<\/span><\/i><i><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Because they have failed to make the requested and greatly needed reforms, we will be today terminating our relationship with the World Health Organization and redirecting those funds to other worldwide and deserving, urgent, global public health needs.<\/span><\/i><i><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">\u201d<\/span><\/i><\/p>\n<p><b>Autonomous Hong Kong:<\/b><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">\u201c<\/span><i><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">China\u2019s latest incursion, along with other recent developments that degraded the territory\u2019s freedoms, makes clear that Hong Kong is no longer sufficiently autonomous to warrant the special treatment that we have afforded the territory since the handover. China has replaced its promised formula of \u201cone country, two systems\u201d with \u201cone country, one system.\u201d Therefore, I am directing my administration to begin the process of eliminating policy exemptions that give Hong Kong different and special treatment.\u201d<\/span><\/i><\/p>\n<p><b>G7 Meeting<\/b><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">President Trump postponed the G7 meeting until September which is yet to be confirmed. However, the US President proposed to add Australia, Russia, South Korea and India to the list of nations. By excluding China, the US is sending a clear message that the summit will be about China.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Despite the soaring tensions between the US and China, investors are finding momentary relief on the narrative that the war of words between the two powerful countries has not yet reached a point where the US President is imposing any sanctions on China that could compromise the trade deal.\u00a0 China is at the forefront of President Trump\u2019s election campaign. Given the pandemic-induced economy, President Trump\u2019s is relying on his tough stance on China.<\/span><\/p>\n<h4><b>Forex<\/b><\/h4>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Aside from geopolitical headlines, the immediate attention will be on central banks at the beginning of the week:<\/span><\/p>\n<h5><b>Central Banks<\/b><\/h5>\n<ul>\n<li><b>Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA)<\/b><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Australia seems to have gone through the worst of the pandemic and the lockdown measures are slowly easing across the country. While the national health outcomes were better than feared, the reopening of the economy is also happening faster than initially anticipated. The coordinated monetary and fiscal measures have helped the RBA and the government to provide assistance to households and businesses. The Bank taped into quantitative easing (QE) mid-March for the first time in history and purchased a total of $50 billion of Australian Government Securities (AGS) and semi-government securities (semis).<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Given that the measures put in place are working as broadly as expected, the RBA has even started to scale back daily market open operations. Unlike some major central banks, the RBA has also ruled out negative interest rates. Based on the current developments and the prospects of a quicker recovery, the RBA is widely expected to remain on hold on Tuesday and to maintain a less-dovish tone compared to its peers recently.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The recent Governor Philip Lowe\u2019s speech before the Senate Select Committee was also broadly positive about the economy and its recovery. The Aussie dollar may have some room for some upside momentum if the Bank maintained its optimistic tone. However, the rally in the local currency seen recently may lose steam as China risks loom. Other notable events to watch are the GDP numbers and Retail Sales figures on Wednesday and Thursday respectively.<\/span><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><b>European Central Bank (ECB)<\/b><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The downside risks for the Eurozone have eased which has helped the Euro to advance against the US dollar recently. Interest rates are not expected to shift, but attention will be on the central bank\u2019s decision to expand the QE program. Following recent comments from policymakers, market participants are widely expecting more easing next Thursday with an expansion of the Pandemic Emergency Purchase Programme (PEPP) by EUR500 bn. The impact on the shared currency would likely depend on the extent the ECB will go to support the eurozone economy.<\/span><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><b>Bank of Canada (BoC)<\/b><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Similarly, the BoC is not expected to alter interest rates or expand bond-buying purchases. The new Governor Tiff Macklem will succeed Stephen S. Poloz, who is leaving the BoC on 2 June 2020. The immediate attention will, therefore, be on Mr Macklem\u2019s views on policies.<\/span><\/p>\n<h5><b>US Dollar<\/b><\/h5>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The US dollar has lost ground against most of its counterparts last week dragged by geopolitical tensions, and dismal economic data. The reopening of states is being marred by curfews imposed by nearly 40 cities in the US as protests spread nationwide following the death of Mr George Floyd. The US dollar index which tracks the performance of a basket of currencies against the greenback is back to levels seen mid- March.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Nonfarm payrolls will stand out from the series of economic reports scheduled to be released this week. The job numbers are expected to be less drastic than the 20.5m loss in April. In May, the total number of jobs lost is estimated to be lower around 10m &#8211; which still remains a staggering number. The greenback is mostly driven by geopolitical headlines, but a significant deviation from the forecasts could further weigh on the US dollar.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<h4><b>Oil Market<\/b><\/h4>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The oil market recovered a semblance of normality during the month of May. Ahead of the OPEC+ June meeting scheduled to take place in two weeks, traders will likely be taking clues on the production cuts levels and the reopening of economies to gauge demand. Once again, the immediate attention will be on Russia\u2019s willingness to extend the production cut. After the increase in US oil inventories reported by API and EIA last week, traders will likely continue to monitor weekly oil updates.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<h4><b>Stock Market<\/b><\/h4>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The reopening plans and massively coordinated monetary and fiscal stimulus plans have fueled the rally in the stock market. Investors are navigating in an environment of caution as the combination of the two main themes \u2013 Reopening plans and the rising geopolitical tensions have tamed the pace of the rally. The perpetual support from the Fed continues to provide comfort for equity investors.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">On the geopolitical front, investors may push stock higher by drawing on the conclusion that the US President did not hit China as hard as expected on Friday.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<h4><strong>Key Events Ahead<\/strong><\/h4>\n<p><strong>Monday<\/strong><br \/>\nCaixin Manufacturing PMI (China)<br \/>\nMarkit Manufacturing PMI (Germany)<br \/>\nMarkit Manufacturing PMI (UK)<br \/>\nMarkit Manufacturing PMI (Canada)<br \/>\nMarkit &amp; ISM Manufacturing PMI, ISM Manufacturing Employment Index, ISM Manufacturing Prices Paid and New Orders Index (US)<\/p>\n<p><strong>Tuesday<\/strong><br \/>\nBuilding Permits (New Zealand)<br \/>\nHIA New Home Sales, RBA Interest Rate Decision and Rate Statement (Australia)<br \/>\nReal Retail Sales (Switzerland)<br \/>\nGDT Price Index (New Zealand)<\/p>\n<p><strong>Wednesday<\/strong><br \/>\nAiG Performance of Construction Index, GDP, and Building Permits (Australia)<br \/>\nCaixin Services PMI (China)<br \/>\nGross Domestic Product (Switzerland)<br \/>\nUnemployment Rate &amp; Change and Markit PMI Composite (Germany)<br \/>\nMarkit Services PMI (UK)<br \/>\nUnemployment Rate (Eurozone)<br \/>\nADP Employment Change, Markit PMI Services &amp; Composite, ISM Non-Manufacturing New Orders Index, PMI, Employment Index, and Prices Paid, Factory Orders EIA Crude oil Stocks Change (US)<br \/>\nBoC Rate Statement &amp; Interest Rate Decision (Canada)<\/p>\n<p><strong>Thursday<\/strong><br \/>\nImports, Exports, Trade Balance, and Retail Sales (Australia)<br \/>\nConsumer Prices Index (Switzerland)<br \/>\nRetail Sales, ECB Interest &amp; Deposit Rate Decision and (Eurozone)<br \/>\nTrade Balance, Nonfarm Productivity, Jobless Claims, and Unit Labor Costs (US)<\/p>\n<p><strong>Friday<\/strong><br \/>\nGfk Consumer Confidence (UK)<br \/>\nOverall Household Spending and Leading Economic Index (Japan)<br \/>\nFactory Orders (Germany)<br \/>\nNonfarm Payrolls, Average Hourly Earnings, Labour Force Participation Rate, and Underemployment and Unemployment Rate (US)<br \/>\nUnemployment Rate, Participation Rate, Average Hourly Wages, Net Change in Employment, Ivey Purchasing Managers Index (Canada)<\/p>\n<p><strong>By Deepta Bolaky<\/strong><br \/>\n<img style=\"float: left; width: 20px; padding-top: 4px;\" src=\"https:\/\/www.gomarkets.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/08\/twitter.png\" \/>\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/DeeptaGOMarkets\">@DeeptaGOMarkets<\/a><br \/>\n<a id=\"dividends\"><\/a><\/p>\n<table style=\"height: 171px;\" border=\"1\">\n<tbody>\n<tr style=\"height: 75px;\">\n<td style=\"text-align: center; width: 728px; height: 75px;\" colspan=\"7\"><strong>Tuesday, 02 June 2020<\/strong><strong style=\"font-family: inherit; font-size: inherit;\">\u00a0<\/strong><strong><br \/>\n<\/strong>Indicative Index Dividends<br \/>\n<em><sup>Dividends are in Points<\/sup><\/em><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr style=\"height: 24px;\">\n<td style=\"width: 104px; height: 24px;\" width=\"100\"><strong>ASX200<\/strong><\/td>\n<td style=\"width: 104px; height: 24px;\" width=\"100\"><strong>WS30<\/strong><\/td>\n<td style=\"width: 104px; height: 24px;\" width=\"100\"><strong>US500<\/strong><\/td>\n<td style=\"width: 100px; height: 24px;\" width=\"100\"><strong>US2000<\/strong><\/td>\n<td style=\"width: 108px; height: 24px;\" width=\"100\"><strong>NDX100<\/strong><\/td>\n<td style=\"width: 104px; height: 24px;\" width=\"100\"><strong>CAC40<\/strong><\/td>\n<td style=\"width: 104px; height: 24px;\" width=\"100\"><strong>STOXX50<\/strong><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr style=\"height: 24px;\">\n<td style=\"width: 104px; height: 24px;\" width=\"100\">0<\/td>\n<td style=\"width: 104px; height: 24px;\" width=\"100\">0<\/td>\n<td style=\"width: 104px; height: 24px;\" width=\"69\">0.095<\/td>\n<td style=\"width: 100px;\" width=\"69\">0.022<\/td>\n<td style=\"width: 108px; height: 24px;\" width=\"100\">0<\/td>\n<td style=\"width: 104px;\" width=\"69\">1.655<\/td>\n<td style=\"width: 104px;\" width=\"69\">1.223<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr style=\"height: 24px;\">\n<td style=\"width: 104px; height: 24px;\" width=\"100\"><strong>ESP35<\/strong><\/td>\n<td style=\"width: 104px; height: 24px;\" width=\"100\"><strong>ITA40<\/strong><\/td>\n<td style=\"width: 104px; height: 24px;\" width=\"100\"><strong>FTSE100<\/strong><\/td>\n<td style=\"width: 100px; height: 24px;\" width=\"100\"><strong>DAX30<\/strong><\/td>\n<td style=\"width: 108px; height: 24px;\" width=\"100\"><strong>HK50<\/strong><\/td>\n<td style=\"width: 104px; height: 24px;\" width=\"100\"><strong>JP225<\/strong><\/td>\n<td style=\"width: 104px; height: 24px;\" width=\"100\"><strong>INDIA50<\/strong><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td style=\"width: 104px;\" width=\"69\">0.857<\/td>\n<td style=\"width: 104px; height: 24px;\" width=\"100\">0<\/td>\n<td style=\"width: 104px; height: 24px;\" width=\"100\">0<\/td>\n<td style=\"width: 100px; height: 24px;\" width=\"100\">0<\/td>\n<td style=\"width: 108px;\" width=\"69\">3.62<\/td>\n<td style=\"width: 104px; height: 24px;\" width=\"100\">0<\/td>\n<td style=\"width: 104px; height: 24px;\" width=\"100\">0<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<p><a href=\"\/forex-education-courses\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\"><br \/>\n<img src=\"https:\/\/www.gomarkets.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/02\/Next-Steps-Blog-Bottom-Banner.jpg\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p><em>Disclaimer: Articles and videos from GO Markets analysts are based on their independent analysis. Views expressed are of their own and of a \u2018general\u2019 nature. Advice (if any) are not based on the reader&#8217;s personal objectives, financial situation or needs. \u00a0Readers should, therefore, consider how appropriate the advice (if any) is to their objectives, financial situation and needs, before acting on the advice. For more information of trading, check out our <a href=\"https:\/\/www.gomarkets.com\/au\/forex-education-courses\/\">forex trading courses<\/a>.<\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>By Deepta Bolaky \u00a0@DeeptaGOMarkets Trumpolitics Markets dissected President Trump\u2019s remarks on actions against China on Friday. A key takeaway from those remarks was that the US President did not mention the Phase One trade deal between the US and China and instead focused on China\u2019s handling of coronavirus, the World Health Organisation (WHO) and Hong [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[128],"tags":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v16.8 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>Week Ahead: Trumpolitics, Central Banks and Nonfarm Payrolls - GO Markets<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.gomarkets.com\/en\/weekly-summaries\/week-ahead-trumpolitics-central-banks-and-nonfarm-payrolls\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Week Ahead: Trumpolitics, Central Banks and Nonfarm Payrolls - GO Markets\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"By Deepta Bolaky \u00a0@DeeptaGOMarkets Trumpolitics Markets dissected President Trump\u2019s remarks on actions against China on Friday. 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